John Kelly
RB, Tennessee · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #176 (LAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 15 of ~116 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2024 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #159 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#176).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 15 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Rushing | 32 att, 96 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 27 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 216 lbs |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.13 s |
| Shuttle | 4.51 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.38" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #159 overall (#13 RB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 173 | Johnny Townsend | redraft #202 |
| 174 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | redraft #67 |
| 175 | Damion Ratley | redraft #184 |
| 177 | Duke Ejiofor | redraft #216 |
| 178 | Christian Sam | redraft #243 |
| 179 | Parry Nickerson | redraft #206 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.