John Greco
T, Toledo · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #65 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #107 (#10 at his position); he went #65, 42 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Toledo: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.29 40-yard dash at 305 lbs: faster than 31% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 132 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2018 (~75%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 132 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 29 |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 305 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.29 s |
| Bench press | 30 reps |
| Vertical | 26" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 8.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.82 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #107 overall (#10 T) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 62 | Terrence Wheatley | redraft #186 |
| 63 | Terrell Thomas | redraft #87 |
| 64 | Kevin Smith | redraft #85 |
| 66 | Kendall Langford | redraft #28 |
| 67 | Charles Godfrey | redraft #58 |
| 68 | Chevis Jackson | redraft #153 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.