Joe Thomas
T, Wisconsin · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #3 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 167 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2017 (~95%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.92 40-yard dash at 311 lbs: faster than 96% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 167 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 10 |
| First-team All-Pro | 6 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 85 |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 311 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.92 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.88 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#1 T) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 1 | JaMarcus Russell | redraft #138 |
| 2 | Calvin Johnson | redraft #8 |
| 4 | Gaines Adams | redraft #78 |
| 5 | Levi Brown | redraft #43 |
| 6 | LaRon Landry | redraft #36 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.