Joe Staley
T, Central Michigan · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #28 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 181 of ~208 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2019 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#28). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Central Michigan: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 306 lbs: faster than 100% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 181 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 12 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 81 |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 26 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 306 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#3 T) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 25 | Jon Beason | redraft #21 |
| 26 | Anthony Spencer | redraft #42 |
| 27 | Robert Meachem | redraft #56 |
| 29 | Ben Grubbs | redraft #18 |
| 30 | Craig Davis | redraft #133 |
| 31 | Greg Olsen | redraft #16 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.