Joe Burrow
QB, LSU · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #1 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #2 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 76 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~75%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 82 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 63 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 65.7 |
| Passing | 2056/2995, 22,171 yds, 168 TD, 54 INT |
| Rushing | 254 att, 895 yds, 13 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 221 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #2 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 2 | Chase Young | redraft #42 |
| 3 | Jeff Okudah | redraft #114 |
| 4 | Andrew Thomas | redraft #25 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.