Jimmy Graham
TE, Miami (FL) · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #95 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 197 of ~227 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2023 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #96 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#95). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 260 lbs: faster than 92% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 197 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 61 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 3 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 719 rec, 8,545 yds, 89 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 260 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.45 s |
| Arm / hand | 35" / 10.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #96 overall (#7 TE) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 92 | Shawn Lauvao | redraft #44 |
| 93 | Tony Moeaki | redraft #118 |
| 94 | Kevin Thomas | redraft #178 |
| 96 | Brandon Ghee | redraft #181 |
| 97 | Rennie Curran | redraft #200 |
| 98 | Mike Johnson | redraft #174 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.