Jerry Hughes
DE, TCU · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #31 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 225 of ~244 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2024 (~92%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#31). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 255 lbs: faster than 90% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 225 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 68 |
| Defense | 323 tackles, 70 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 255 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.99 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.8" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#2 DE) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 28 | Jared Odrick | redraft #61 |
| 29 | Kyle Wilson | redraft #93 |
| 30 | Jahvid Best | redraft #105 |
| 32 | Patrick Robinson | redraft #69 |
| 33 | Rodger Saffold | redraft #11 |
| 34 | Chris Cook | redraft #117 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.