Jerious Norwood
RB, Mississippi St. · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #79 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #120 (#10 at his position); he went #79, 41 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 87% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 66 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2011 (~69%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 66 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 20 |
| Passing | undefined/2, 0 yds, undefined TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 399 att, 2,056 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 96 rec, 912 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #120 overall (#10 RB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 76 | Anthony Schlegel | redraft #181 |
| 77 | Jon Alston | redraft #160 |
| 78 | Travis Wilson | redraft #212 |
| 80 | Clint Ingram | redraft #90 |
| 81 | Charlie Whitehurst | redraft #143 |
| 82 | Derek Hagan | redraft #118 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.