Jeremy Chinn
S, Southern Illinois · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #64 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #50 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#64). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Southern Illinois: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 65% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 85 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 92 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 41 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 44.2 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 29 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 379 tackles, 8 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 41" |
| Broad jump | 138" |
| Arm / hand | 32.13" / 9.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #50 overall (#4 S) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 61 | Kristian Fulton | redraft #76 |
| 62 | AJ Dillon | redraft #57 |
| 63 | Willie Gay Jr. | redraft #48 |
| 65 | Logan Wilson | redraft #38 |
| 66 | Antonio Gibson | redraft #44 |
| 67 | Julian Okwara | redraft #161 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.