Jeff Dugan
TE, Maryland · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #220 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #211 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#220). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Maryland: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.00 40-yard dash at 263 lbs: faster than 2% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 79 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2010 (~71%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 79 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Rushing | 11 att, 23 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 27 rec, 191 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 263 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.00 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.4 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #211 overall (#12 TE) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 217 | Cody Pickett | redraft #192 |
| 218 | Casey Bramlet | redraft #244 |
| 219 | Quincy Wilson | redraft #212 |
| 221 | Tony Pape | redraft #245 |
| 222 | Derrick Pope | redraft #104 |
| 223 | Jacques Reeves | redraft #93 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.