Jeb Terry
G, North Carolina · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #146 (TAM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #190 (#11 at his position); he went #146, 44 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.20 40-yard dash at 313 lbs: faster than 53% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 30 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2006 (~63%). Last NFL season: 2006.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 30 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Last NFL season | 2006 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 313 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.20 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 8.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.98 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #190 overall (#11 G) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 143 | Erik Coleman | redraft #52 |
| 144 | Sean Ryan | redraft #193 |
| 145 | Nathaniel Adibi | redraft #229 |
| 147 | Claude Harriott | redraft #230 |
| 148 | Craig Krenzel | redraft #191 |
| 149 | Maurice Mann | redraft #223 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.