Jayron Kearse
S, Clemson · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #244 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #141 overall (#16 at his position), but he lasted until pick #244: teams let him slide 103 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 119 of ~131 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2023 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 216 lbs: faster than 7% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 119 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 18.0 |
| Defense | 270 tackles, 5 sacks, 5 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 216 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #141 overall (#16 S) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 241 | Charone Peake | redraft #202 |
| 242 | Keith Marshall | redraft #250 |
| 243 | Kenny Lawler | redraft #251 |
| 245 | Clayton Fejedelem | redraft #136 |
| 246 | Tyler Matakevich | redraft #130 |
| 247 | Zac Brooks | redraft #252 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.