Jaylen Reed
SAF, Penn St. · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #187 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #116 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #187: teams let him slide 71 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 211 lbs: faster than 48% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SAF (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 6 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~35%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 13 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Defense | 12 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 211 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #116 overall (#9 SAF) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 184 | Devin Neal | redraft #140 |
| 185 | Will Howard | redraft #241 |
| 186 | Tyler Loop | redraft #110 |
| 188 | Kalel Mullings | redraft #214 |
| 189 | Riley Leonard | redraft #142 |
| 190 | Tim Smith | redraft #202 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.