Jay Toia
DT, UCLA · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #217 (DAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~29%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #168 overall (#19 at his position), but he lasted until pick #217: teams let him slide 49 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
UCLA: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 342 lbs |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #168 overall (#19 DT) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 214 | R.J. Mickens | redraft #86 |
| 215 | Cam Miller | redraft #247 |
| 216 | Jeremy Crawshaw | redraft #111 |
| 218 | Jack Nelson | redraft #185 |
| 219 | Thomas Fidone | redraft #206 |
| 220 | Marcus Bryant | redraft #181 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.