Jay Ajayi
RB, Boise St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #149 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #82 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #149: teams let him slide 67 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boise St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 37% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 45 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2019 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 45 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| Rushing | 572 att, 2,546 yds, 13 TD |
| Receiving | 63 rec, 419 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 39" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.1 s |
| Shuttle | 4.1 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #82 overall (#7 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 146 | Stefon Diggs | redraft #1 |
| 147 | Brett Hundley | redraft #146 |
| 148 | Davis Tull | redraft #233 |
| 150 | Cedric Thompson | redraft #234 |
| 151 | David Parry | redraft #103 |
| 152 | Jarvis Harrison | redraft #235 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.