Jason Snelling
RB, Virginia · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #244 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 96 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2013 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #248 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#244). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 230 lbs: faster than 5% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 96 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| Rushing | 363 att, 1,420 yds, 8 TD |
| Receiving | 168 rec, 1,249 yds, 9 TD |
| Defense | 33 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 230 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #248 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 241 | Aaron Brant | redraft #252 |
| 242 | Keyunta Dawson | redraft #95 |
| 243 | Clark Harris | redraft #112 |
| 245 | Marcus Hamilton | redraft #199 |
| 246 | Kenneth Darby | redraft #156 |
| 247 | Mike Elgin | redraft #253 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.