Jason Jefferson
DT, Wisconsin · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #193 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #123 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #193: teams let him slide 70 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.10 40-yard dash at 310 lbs: faster than 18% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 34 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2008 (~53%). Last NFL season: 2008.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 34 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Defense | 21 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 310 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.10 s |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 102" |
| 3-cone | 7.79 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #123 overall (#10 DT) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 190 | Tab Perry | redraft #174 |
| 191 | C.J. Mosley | redraft #82 |
| 192 | Dante Ridgeway | redraft #200 |
| 194 | Pat Thomas | redraft #145 |
| 195 | Craig Bragg | redraft #239 |
| 196 | Tony Jackson | redraft #240 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.