Jarrian Jones
DB, Florida St. · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #96 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 34 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~100%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #235 (#32 at his position); he went #96, 139 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at 190 lbs: faster than 87% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 40 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.3 |
| Defense | 83 tackles, 2 sacks, 5 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 190 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38 s |
| Vertical | 39.5" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #235 overall (#32 DB) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 93 | Adisa Isaac | redraft #231 |
| 94 | Jalyx Hunt | redraft #54 |
| 95 | DeWayne Carter | redraft #137 |
| 97 | McKinnley Jackson | redraft #162 |
| 98 | Payton Wilson | redraft #62 |
| 99 | Kamren Kinchens | redraft #63 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.