Jarrett Patterson
OL, Notre Dame · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #201 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #235 (#8 at his position); he went #201, 34 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.33 40-yard dash at 306 lbs: faster than 21% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 38 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~75%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 45 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 8.1 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 306 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.33 s |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.73 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.38" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #235 overall (#8 OL) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 198 | Jerrick Reed | redraft #230 |
| 199 | Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu | redraft #247 |
| 200 | Scott Matlock | redraft #72 |
| 202 | Christian Braswell | redraft #199 |
| 203 | Amari Burney | redraft #187 |
| 204 | Jarrick Bernard-Converse | redraft #229 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.