Jared Goff
QB, California · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #1 (LAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 150 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~91%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
California: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 46% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 156 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 106 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 108.7 |
| Passing | 3568/5415, 41,107 yds, 268 TD, 102 INT |
| Rushing | 305 att, 612 yds, 13 TD |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 12 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Vertical | 27" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.17 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#2 QB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 2 | Carson Wentz | redraft #13 |
| 3 | Joey Bosa | redraft #16 |
| 4 | Ezekiel Elliott | redraft #10 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.