James Davis
RB, Clemson · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #195 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 9 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2010 (~28%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #124 overall (#11 at his position), but he lasted until pick #195: teams let him slide 71 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 218 lbs: faster than 76% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 9 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 28 att, 75 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 8 rec, 50 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 218 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.15 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #124 overall (#11 RB) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 192 | Aaron Brown | redraft #172 |
| 193 | Matt Slauson | redraft #28 |
| 194 | Brandon Gibson | redraft #93 |
| 196 | Keith Null | redraft #192 |
| 197 | Stephen Hodge | redraft #245 |
| 198 | Jake Ingram | redraft #182 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.