James Conner
RB, Pittsburgh · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #105 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #122 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#105). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 233 lbs: faster than 14% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 110 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~74%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 110 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 49.0 |
| Rushing | 1393 att, 6,065 yds, 60 TD |
| Receiving | 289 rec, 2,255 yds, 12 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 233 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #122 overall (#10 RB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 102 | Nazair Jones | redraft #176 |
| 103 | Trey Hendrickson | redraft #14 |
| 104 | C.J. Beathard | redraft #130 |
| 106 | Amara Darboh | redraft #193 |
| 107 | Kendell Beckwith | redraft #156 |
| 108 | Vince Biegel | redraft #161 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.