James Casey
TE, Rice · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #152 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #68 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #152: teams let him slide 84 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 95 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2015 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Rice: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at 246 lbs: faster than 61% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 95 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 17 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 72 rec, 842 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 37 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 246 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.48 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #68 overall (#5 TE) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 149 | Davon Drew | redraft #233 |
| 150 | Jasper Brinkley | redraft #76 |
| 151 | Rhett Bomar | redraft #234 |
| 153 | Cornelius Ingram | redraft #235 |
| 154 | Marcus Freeman | redraft #236 |
| 155 | Xavier Fulton | redraft #237 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.