Jameis Winston
QB, Florida St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #1 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.97 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 13% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 113 of ~181 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~62%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 113 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 63 |
| Passing | 2071/3402, 25,749 yds, 163 TD, 118 INT |
| Rushing | 342 att, 1,366 yds, 13 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 33 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.97 s |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 7.16 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #1 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 2 | Marcus Mariota | redraft #10 |
| 3 | Dante Fowler | redraft #60 |
| 4 | Amari Cooper | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.