Jalston Fowler
FB, Alabama · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #108 (TEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #149 (#1 at his position); he went #108, 41 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.94 40-yard dash at 254 lbs: faster than 1% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 42 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2017 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 42 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Rushing | 10 att, 20 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 6 rec, 58 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 254 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.94 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.56 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #149 overall (#1 FB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 105 | Jamison Crowder | redraft #51 |
| 106 | Jeremy Langford | redraft #127 |
| 107 | Justin Hardy | redraft #120 |
| 109 | Clayton Geathers | redraft #102 |
| 110 | T.J. Clemmings | redraft #92 |
| 111 | Tre' Jackson | redraft #139 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.