Jalen Mills
S, LSU · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #233 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #92 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #233: teams let him slide 141 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 191 lbs: faster than 10% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 122 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~74%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 124 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 31 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 31.2 |
| Defense | 336 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 8 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 191 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 6.86 s |
| Shuttle | 4 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #92 overall (#7 S) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 230 | Daniel Braverman | redraft #225 |
| 231 | Thomas Duarte | redraft #235 |
| 232 | Steven Daniels | redraft #247 |
| 234 | Vadal Alexander | redraft #143 |
| 235 | Lac Edwards | redraft #123 |
| 236 | Dwayne Washington | redraft #171 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.