Jake Bailey
P, Stanford · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #163 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
P (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 108 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~92%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #329 (#2 at his position); he went #163, 166 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.72 40-yard dash at 200 lbs: faster than 82% of STs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 115 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.1 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 200 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.72 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| Arm / hand | 30" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #329 overall (#2 P) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 160 | Daylon Mack | redraft #232 |
| 161 | Charles Omenihu | redraft #107 |
| 162 | Cameron Smith | redraft #221 |
| 164 | E.J. Speed | redraft #79 |
| 165 | Joe Jackson | redraft #205 |
| 166 | Easton Stick | redraft #164 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.