Jahan Dotson
WR, Penn St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #16 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #25 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 178 lbs: faster than 64% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 62 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~91%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 69 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 14.1 |
| Rushing | 3 att, 6 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 132 rec, 1,755 yds, 14 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 178 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.5" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #25 overall (#6 WR) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 13 | Jordan Davis | redraft #36 |
| 14 | Kyle Hamilton | redraft #10 |
| 15 | Kenyon Green | redraft #132 |
| 17 | Zion Johnson | redraft #26 |
| 18 | Treylon Burks | redraft #128 |
| 19 | Trevor Penning | redraft #78 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.