Ja'Marr Chase
WR, LSU · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #5 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 77 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~91%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#5).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 91% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 58 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 60.2 |
| Passing | 1/1, -7 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 21 att, 69 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 547 rec, 7,126 yds, 58 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.34 s |
| Vertical | 41" |
| Broad jump | 132" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 3.99 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.75" / 9.63" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#1 WR) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 2 | Zach Wilson | redraft #96 |
| 3 | Trey Lance | redraft #142 |
| 4 | Kyle Pitts | redraft #32 |
| 6 | Jaylen Waddle | redraft #10 |
| 7 | Penei Sewell | redraft #2 |
| 8 | Jaycee Horn | redraft #52 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.