J.T. O'Sullivan
QB, UC Davis · 2002 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #186 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
UC Davis: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.88 40-yard dash at 223 lbs: faster than 31% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 17 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2002 through 2009 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2009.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Passing | 145/257, 1,866 yds, 9 TD, 13 INT |
| Rushing | 39 att, 145 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 223 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.88 s |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.46 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 183 | James Lewis | redraft #240 |
| 184 | Kahlil Hill | redraft #225 |
| 185 | Josh Scobey | redraft #158 |
| 187 | Justin Hartwig | redraft #41 |
| 188 | Wesly Mallard | redraft #163 |
| 189 | Keyon Nash | redraft #220 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.