J.J. Wilcox
DB, Georgia Southern · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #80 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #104 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#80).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia Southern: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 213 lbs: faster than 18% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 77 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2018 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 77 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| Defense | 173 tackles, 0 sacks, 6 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 213 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.02 s |
| Shuttle | 4.09 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #104 overall (#8 DB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 77 | Dallas Thomas | redraft #107 |
| 78 | Marquise Goodwin | redraft #67 |
| 79 | Markus Wheaton | redraft #104 |
| 81 | Damontre Moore | redraft #155 |
| 82 | John Jenkins | redraft #49 |
| 83 | Logan Ryan | redraft #33 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.