Isaiah Thomas
DE, Oklahoma · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #223 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 12 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2024 (~24%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #191 overall (#17 at his position), but he lasted until pick #223: teams let him slide 32 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at 266 lbs: faster than 84% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 12 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 266 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.70 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #191 overall (#17 DE) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 220 | Kalia Davis | redraft #122 |
| 221 | Tariq Castro-Fields | redraft #233 |
| 222 | Montaric Brown | redraft #106 |
| 224 | Cameron Goode | redraft #192 |
| 225 | Mark Robinson | redraft #166 |
| 226 | Ja'Tyre Carter | redraft #202 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.