Isaiah Hodgins
WR, Oregon St. · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #207 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #187 (#32 at his position), close to where he went (#207). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 6% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 38 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~38%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.0 |
| Receiving | 70 rec, 749 yds, 8 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Bench press | 9 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.38" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #187 overall (#32 WR) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 204 | Cassh Maluia | redraft #217 |
| 205 | Josh Metellus | redraft #66 |
| 206 | Tyler Davis | redraft #226 |
| 208 | Jake Hanson | redraft #174 |
| 209 | Simon Stepaniak | redraft #251 |
| 210 | Prince Tega Wanogho | redraft #223 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.