Isaiah Davis
RB, South Dakota St. · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #173 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #172 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#173). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Dakota St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 39 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.5 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 5.5 |
| Rushing | 82 att, 434 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 32 rec, 280 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 218 lbs |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #172 overall (#13 RB) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 170 | Bub Means | redraft #197 |
| 171 | Jordan Travis | redraft #243 |
| 172 | Trevor Keegan | redraft #214 |
| 174 | Caelen Carson | redraft #156 |
| 175 | Jaylan Ford | redraft #154 |
| 176 | Qwan'tez Stiggers | redraft #136 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.