Irv Smith Jr.
TE, Alabama · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #50 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 54 of ~100 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2024 (~54%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #34 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#50).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 76% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 54 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 9.0 |
| Receiving | 109 rec, 973 yds, 10 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.32 s |
| Shuttle | 4.33 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.13" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #34 overall (#3 TE) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 47 | Marquise Blair | redraft #182 |
| 48 | Erik McCoy | redraft #37 |
| 49 | Ben Banogu | redraft #156 |
| 51 | A.J. Brown | redraft #1 |
| 52 | Drew Sample | redraft #125 |
| 53 | Miles Sanders | redraft #46 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.