Ian Thomas
TE, Indiana · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #101 (CAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #101 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#101).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Indiana: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.74 40-yard dash at 259 lbs: faster than 46% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 113 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~85%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 120 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 9.1 |
| Receiving | 136 rec, 1,228 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 259 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.74 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.15 s |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #101 overall (#6 TE) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 98 | Jordan Akins | redraft #109 |
| 99 | Isaac Yiadom | redraft #107 |
| 100 | Dorian O'Daniel | redraft #172 |
| 102 | Jalyn Holmes | redraft #153 |
| 103 | Keke Coutee | redraft #160 |
| 104 | Nyheim Hines | redraft #77 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.