Hunter Long
TE, Boston Col. · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #81 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 46 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~54%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #52 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#81).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boston Col.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 50 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.7 |
| Receiving | 22 rec, 168 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 254 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 33.75" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #52 overall (#2 TE) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 78 | Chazz Surratt | redraft #135 |
| 79 | Malcolm Koonce | redraft #108 |
| 80 | Divine Deablo | redraft #40 |
| 82 | Dyami Brown | redraft #121 |
| 83 | Tommy Tremble | redraft #119 |
| 84 | Chauncey Golston | redraft #97 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.