Herman Johnson
T, LSU · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #167 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #123 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #167: teams let him slide 44 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.50 40-yard dash at 364 lbs: faster than 4% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 364 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.50 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #123 overall (#5 T) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 164 | Thomas Morstead | redraft #55 |
| 165 | Chris Clemons | redraft #81 |
| 166 | Michael Hamlin | redraft #210 |
| 168 | Joe Burnett | redraft #184 |
| 169 | Frank Summers | redraft #194 |
| 170 | George Bussey | redraft #242 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.