Harlan Miller
CB, Southeastern Louisiana · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #205 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 9 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2018 (~19%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #120 overall (#17 at his position), but he lasted until pick #205: teams let him slide 85 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Southeastern Louisiana: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 182 lbs: faster than 3% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 9 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Defense | 9 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 182 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 6 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.44 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.63" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #120 overall (#17 CB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 202 | Anthony Zettel | redraft #128 |
| 203 | Dadi Nicolas | redraft #207 |
| 204 | Jordan Lucas | redraft #172 |
| 206 | Mike Thomas | redraft #192 |
| 207 | Jeff Driskel | redraft #142 |
| 208 | Kamu Grugier-Hill | redraft #79 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.