Gervon Dexter
DL, Florida · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #53 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 48 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #74 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#53). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.88 40-yard dash at 310 lbs: faster than 54% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DL (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 18.9 |
| Defense | 65 tackles, 15 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 310 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.88 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.5 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.25" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #74 overall (#7 DL) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 50 | Jayden Reed | redraft #30 |
| 51 | Cam Smith | redraft #204 |
| 52 | Zach Charbonnet | redraft #44 |
| 54 | Tuli Tuipulotu | redraft #19 |
| 55 | Rashee Rice | redraft #41 |
| 56 | Tyrique Stevenson | redraft #45 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.