Gerald Christian
TE, Louisville · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #256 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 3 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2016 (~9%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #253 (#15 at his position), close to where he went (#256).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.87 40-yard dash at 244 lbs: faster than 11% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 3 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 14 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 244 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.87 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| 3-cone | 7.62 s |
| Shuttle | 4.7 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #253 overall (#15 TE) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 253 | Xzavier Dickson | redraft #255 |
| 254 | Rory Anderson | redraft #256 |
| 255 | Denzelle Good | redraft #74 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.