Ernest Jones
LB, South Carolina · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #103 (LAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 77 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~91%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #127 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#103). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 230 lbs: faster than 49% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 84 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 37 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 40.2 |
| Defense | 344 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 10 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 230 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Arm / hand | 33.38" / 10.38" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #127 overall (#10 LB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 100 | Elijah Molden | redraft #73 |
| 101 | Ifeatu Melifonwu | redraft #112 |
| 102 | Ambry Thomas | redraft #141 |
| 104 | Brandon Stephens | redraft #53 |
| 105 | Baron Browning | redraft #64 |
| 106 | Jay Tufele | redraft #151 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.