Erik Lorig
DE, Stanford · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #253 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.86 40-yard dash at 281 lbs: faster than 58% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 66 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2014 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 66 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Rushing | 3 att, 4 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 39 rec, 220 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 19 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 281 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.86 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 250 | Zac Robinson | redraft #254 |
| 251 | Stevie Brown | redraft #119 |
| 252 | Austin Spitler | redraft #144 |
| 254 | Josh Hull | redraft #161 |
| 255 | Tim Toone | redraft #255 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.