Elijah Roberts
DT, SMU · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #157 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 16 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #193 (#28 at his position); he went #157, 36 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
SMU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at 285 lbs: faster than 72% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 23 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 5.8 |
| Defense | 15 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 285 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.78 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #193 overall (#28 DT) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 154 | Marcus Mbow | redraft #123 |
| 155 | Dante Trader | redraft #80 |
| 156 | Jeffrey Bassa | redraft #159 |
| 158 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | redraft #204 |
| 159 | Collin Oliver | redraft #233 |
| 160 | Marques Sigle | redraft #67 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.