EJ Manuel
QB, Florida St. · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #16 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #77 (#6 at his position); he went #16, 61 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 30 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2017 (~38%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 237 lbs: faster than 79% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 30 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| Passing | 343/590, 3,767 yds, 20 TD, 16 INT |
| Rushing | 96 att, 339 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 237 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Arm / hand | 35" / 10.3" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #77 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 13 | Sheldon Richardson | redraft #11 |
| 14 | Star Lotulelei | redraft #24 |
| 15 | Kenny Vaccaro | redraft #45 |
| 17 | Jarvis Jones | redraft #85 |
| 18 | Eric Reid | redraft #47 |
| 19 | Justin Pugh | redraft #25 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.