Edwin Baker
RB, Michigan St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #250 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #111 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #250: teams let him slide 139 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 204 lbs: faster than 79% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 6 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2014 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 6 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 44 att, 173 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 8 rec, 57 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 204 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.27 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Arm / hand | 29.5" / 8.1" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #111 overall (#10 RB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 247 | Brad Smelley | redraft #220 |
| 248 | Kelvin Beachum | redraft #19 |
| 249 | Travian Robertson | redraft #193 |
| 251 | John Potter | redraft #210 |
| 252 | Daryl Richardson | redraft #136 |
| 253 | Chandler Harnish | redraft #252 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.