Dwayne Jarrett
WR, USC · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #45 (CAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2010 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #34 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#45).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 5% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 32 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 11 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 35 rec, 428 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Age at draft | 20 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #34 overall (#5 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 42 | Tony Ugoh | redraft #79 |
| 43 | Drew Stanton | redraft #118 |
| 44 | Sidney Rice | redraft #47 |
| 46 | LaMarr Woodley | redraft #22 |
| 47 | David Harris | redraft #9 |
| 48 | Justin Durant | redraft #39 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.