Dwayne Bowe
WR, LSU · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #23 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 125 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2015 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 33% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 125 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 50 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 16 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 537 rec, 7,208 yds, 44 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 6.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.35 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 20 | Aaron Ross | redraft #70 |
| 21 | Reggie Nelson | redraft #14 |
| 22 | Brady Quinn | redraft #165 |
| 24 | Brandon Meriweather | redraft #46 |
| 25 | Jon Beason | redraft #21 |
| 26 | Anthony Spencer | redraft #42 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.