Dustin Keller
TE, Purdue · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #30 (NYJ)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #39 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#30).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Purdue: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 92% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 72 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2012 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 72 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 7 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 241 rec, 2,876 yds, 17 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 131" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.14 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #39 overall (#1 TE) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 27 | Antoine Cason | redraft #62 |
| 28 | Lawrence Jackson | redraft #98 |
| 29 | Kentwan Balmer | redraft #137 |
| 31 | Kenny Phillips | redraft #93 |
| 32 | Phillip Merling | redraft #140 |
| 33 | Donnie Avery | redraft #80 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.