Durham Smythe
TE, Notre Dame · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #123 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #186 (#13 at his position); he went #123, 63 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 253 lbs: faster than 23% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 129 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~97%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 133 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 10.9 |
| Rushing | 4 att, 4 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 137 rec, 1,257 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 14 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 253 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.17 s |
| Shuttle | 4.23 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.75" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #186 overall (#13 TE) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 120 | Will Dissly | redraft #110 |
| 121 | Taron Johnson | redraft #44 |
| 122 | Kenny Young | redraft #102 |
| 124 | Armani Watts | redraft #189 |
| 125 | Avonte Maddox | redraft #103 |
| 126 | Ito Smith | redraft #167 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.